How the environmental complexity affects forecasting in retail? Actual research trends

Purpose: The aim of this work is to highlight the impact of complex environments on forecasting activities in the retail sector. Design/Methodology/Approach: This work is based on a bibliometric analysis of the publications on complex environments and forecasting in retail, examined through the adoption of a web-based social network analysis (SNA) on the citation data. Findings: The paper shows the last research trends in multi-factors forecasting in retailing, from which it emerges that when market complexity increases, new forecasting tools should be developed with the aim to make linear the relationship between complexity and optimization of forecasting models. Research implications: The study highlights the inherent limits to forecasting, showing that an evolution of forecasting methods is necessary and the complexity science should be seen as opening up new paths to reveal important insights to assist decision-making. Originality: The work provides an original interpretation of the research trends presenting the inverse relation between the complexity of the environment and optimization of forecasting plans.