A Design Method for Pedestrian Areas by a Simplified Approach to Predict the Future Traffic Scenarios

The interest in sustainable mobility and active modes has increased in the last years. A strong measure to encourage citizens towards sustainable transport choices is to promote and enlarge pedestrian areas, that appears to be the most radical and feasible measures against the modal choice towards transit and private traffic because of a reduction of noise and air pollution levels but also because of a dramatic decrease of the safety risk of vulnerable users. However, the design of a new pedestrian area will have an impact on future vehicular traffic flows that need to be evaluated. In this paper a simplified method to predict the future traffic scenarios following the establishment of a pedestrian area is presented. Results by this method have been compared with those provided by a conventional traffic demand model and a sensitive analysis employing different assignment techniques has been carried out. It is believed that the use of this method may help urban road designers and city planners in identifying critical traffic scenarios induced by new pedestrian areas and in studying suitable countermeasures to reduce traffic congestion in surrounding areas.