This paper applies the point estimate method to account for the uncertainties that affect the evaluation of the steady state operating condition of an unbalanced three-phase power system. Moreover, since the point estimate method requires that the input random variables are uncorrelated, a suitable adjustment to take into account the correlation is applied. Different point estimate schemes (2m, 2m+ 1 and 4m+ 1 schemes) are presented and tested. The accuracy of the proposed techniques is tested on a three-phase unbalanced IEEE 34-bus test system; the results obtained applying the Monte Carlo simulation are assumed as reference . Both correlated and uncorrelated input random variables are considered, and multimodal probability density functions are tested. The conclusion is that the 2m+1 scheme gives the best solution in terms of accuracy and computational efforts; in the case of correlated input random variables, an adequate procedure to take into account the correlation must be applied.

Point Estimate Schemes for Probabilistic Three-Phase Load flow

VARILONE, Pietro
2010-01-01

Abstract

This paper applies the point estimate method to account for the uncertainties that affect the evaluation of the steady state operating condition of an unbalanced three-phase power system. Moreover, since the point estimate method requires that the input random variables are uncorrelated, a suitable adjustment to take into account the correlation is applied. Different point estimate schemes (2m, 2m+ 1 and 4m+ 1 schemes) are presented and tested. The accuracy of the proposed techniques is tested on a three-phase unbalanced IEEE 34-bus test system; the results obtained applying the Monte Carlo simulation are assumed as reference . Both correlated and uncorrelated input random variables are considered, and multimodal probability density functions are tested. The conclusion is that the 2m+1 scheme gives the best solution in terms of accuracy and computational efforts; in the case of correlated input random variables, an adequate procedure to take into account the correlation must be applied.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11580/8977
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