Toward the development of a hybrid approach to speed estimation in urban and rural areas

Objective: Given the strong relationship between road accident and traffic speed, the evaluation and prediction of this latter have always been considered as a critical issue for road safety analysis and for the evaluation of road network safety improvements. Prediction models developed to date mainly focused on spot speed in a rural environment or on running speed in an urban one. Very few analyze the speed estimation in “transition” areas. The objective of this paper is to develop a generalized speed estimation model able to predict mean speed in urban, rural, and “transition” environment as a function of road layout characteristics. It is believed that the proposed estimation tool can be effectively employed by road engineers in the road safety design and retrofitting stage. Methods: The basic idea of the paper is to shed some light on this issue by making use of a hybrid estimation approach able to combine the information gathered from both previously mentioned models within a generalized speed adaptation framework that reflects road user behavior. The calibration and validation of the generalized estimation model have been carried out following a collection of Floating Car Data (FCD) on several candidate sites. Results: Preliminary results seem to indicate that the methodology proposed may be effective in estimating the spot speed in two-lane rural and urban arterials. Conclusions: FCD data can be useful to develop more efficient estimation models to better manage the safety of urban and rural roads.