T-Dymm Final Report - Innovative datasets and models for improving welfare policies

Consistently with the objectives and the mandate assigned to the project “Innovative Datasets and Models for Improving Welfare Policies”, funded by the European Commission, DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities, this report presents the main results of original quantitative studies about the evolution of the Italian labour market in the last decades and about simulations on individual labour market and pension prospects up to 2050. These studies have been carried out by means of the information provided by the new innovative panel dataset ADSILC – built merging for Italy EU-SILC survey data with longitudinal information provided by administrative archives managed by INPS –, that allows to reconstruct individuals’work and life patterns by controlling for a much higher number of variables than those included in both original INPS and SILC datasets. Simulations about pension and labour market individual prospects have been carried out by using the dynamic microsimulation model T-DYMM, developed together by the Treasury Department of the Ministry of the Economy and Finance and the Giacomo Brodolini Fundation, in order to provide a supporting toolkit for helping policy makers in their decisional process and for improving the effectiveness of public policy evaluation in the field of labour market analysis and social security programs. This report summarizes the main results achieved by the project. In particular, after a detailed description of the ADSILC dataset (chapter 1), the main evidences – found by using the new dataset – about the evolution of the Italian labour market in past years are shown, focusing in particular on the dynamic of earnings distribution (chapter 2), on individual transitions among the various working statuses (chapter 3) and on the adequacy of contributions accumulated by cohorts of workers belonging to the new notional defined contribution pension scheme (chapter 4). In the second part of the report the characteristics and the main results of the simulations carried out by the new model TDYMM – built using AD-SILC as its main database – are presented, explaining in particular the structure of the model (chapter 5) and the main results of the simulations, concerning the individual performances on the labour market (chapter 6) and the adequacy of the pension benefits that individuals will be entitled to (chapter 7).