On the Z-control of backward bifurcations in epidemic models

We investigate how the Z-type dynamic approach can be applied to control backward bifurcation phenomena in epidemic models. Because of its rich phenomenology, that includes stationary or oscillatory subcritical persistence of the disease, we consider the SIR model introduced by Zhou & Fan in [Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications, 13(1), 312–324, 2012] and apply the Z-control approach in the specific case of indirect control of the infective population. We derive the associated Z-controlled model both when the desired Z-controlled equilibrium is an endemic equilibrium with a very low number of infectives and when the Z-controlled equilibrium is a disease-free equilibrium. We investigate the properties of these Z-controlled models from the point of view of the dynamical system theory and elucidate the key role of the design parameter λ. Numerical investigations on the model also highlight the impacts of the Z-control method on the backward scenario and on a variety of dynamical regimes emerging from it.