The sustainability of a pay-as-you-go pension system strongly depends on the underlying demographic process determining the inverse old-age dependency ratio (the proportion of the active subpopulation to pensioners), considered as a sustainability index. Based on the classical Leslie population model, a dynamic demographic model including a controlled immigration is set up. A convergent algorithm is given which steers the population towards a demographic equilibrium with a better sustainability index, and at the same time minimizes the yearly immigration. In addition, simulations are provided for Italian data, comparing the demographic dynamics corresponding to different decision scenarios.
Sustainability of a Pay-As-You-Go Pension System by Dynamic Immigration Control
BIANCHI, Sergio;
2012-01-01
Abstract
The sustainability of a pay-as-you-go pension system strongly depends on the underlying demographic process determining the inverse old-age dependency ratio (the proportion of the active subpopulation to pensioners), considered as a sustainability index. Based on the classical Leslie population model, a dynamic demographic model including a controlled immigration is set up. A convergent algorithm is given which steers the population towards a demographic equilibrium with a better sustainability index, and at the same time minimizes the yearly immigration. In addition, simulations are provided for Italian data, comparing the demographic dynamics corresponding to different decision scenarios.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
