Building a Sustainable Future for European Pensions: Modelling the Reform Space and the Feasibility of an EU-Wide Pension Pillar

This thesis develops a unified analytical framework to assess the sustainability and adequacy of European PAYG pension systems under demographic ageing. By isolating the mechanical effect of population dynamics, it quantifies the decline in financially sustainable pension levels across EU Member States under unchanged legislation. The analysis then maps the pension Reform Space, identifying feasible combinations of retirement age, contribution rates and benefit levels consistent with long-run balance in both DB and DC settings. Finally, the thesis evaluates the scope for coordinated EU-level intervention, showing that a modest EU-wide flat-rate pension pillar could substantially mitigate future adequacy risks while preserving national pension autonomy.