River Thermal Dynamics and Heatwaves of Polish Rivers Under Climate Change

Progression of global warming poses a significant risk to river ecosystems. However, how river heatwaves' characteristics across complex hydrological systems alter under climate change is still poorly understood. In this study, long-term reconstructed daily river water temperatures (RWTs) from 125 hydrological stations in 70 rivers across Poland, were used. Bayesian estimator of abrupt change, seasonal change, and trend (BEAST) method was used to track the abrupt changes of RWTs. Moreover, the characteristics of river heatwaves, including number, duration, intensity, and category, were evaluated. BEAST analysis revealed pronounced spatiotemporal variability in RWT trends in Poland, influenced by natural and anthropogenic factors. Notably, the maximum abrupt changes of RWT were observed during the 1980s and 1990s. Southern Poland, particularly mountainous regions, exhibited more pronounced river temperature changes and severe heatwaves compared to the milder northern regions. Our results also showed a statistically significant increase in frequency and intensity of river heatwaves at 121 out of the 125 studied stations (p-value < 0.05), which were consistent with the warming of air temperatures. For all the designated stations, the majority of river heatwaves belonged to the category “moderate,” followed by “strong,” “severe,” and “extreme.” Number, duration, and intensity of the river heatwaves were highly correlated with air temperatures, with the correlation coefficients being 0.624, 0.631, and 0.604, respectively. Our findings further suggest that mitigation measures shall be taken to reduce the effects of climate warming on Polish river ecosystems, especially under low flow conditions which are more vulnerable to the intensified river heatwaves.