What drives employment–unemployment transitions? Evidence from Italian task‑based data

Relying on a unique longitudinal integrated database supplying micro-level information on labor market transitions (concerning the 2011–2017 period) and occupation task characteristics (e.g. routine-task intensity), this paper provides fresh evidence of the determinants of unemployment risk in Italy. We find that workers employed in routine-intensive occupations (measured with the RTI proposed by Acemoglu and Autor in Handb Labor Econ 4B:1043–1171, 2011) display—on average—higher unemployment risks than the rest of the workforce. This result is driven by workers employed In occupations entailing a large proportion of routine cognitive tasks and it is concentrated in high and medium–low skill occupations. In addition, the distribution of unemployment risk and its relation with routine-task intensity varies significantly across sectors—with higher risk in manufacturing and construction—confirming the importance of industry-level economic, technological and institutional heterogeneities. Finally, by exploring the gender dimension, we find that that being in a routine-intensive occupation increases unemployment risk for male workers only.