Increasing ventilation reduces SARS-CoV-2 airborne transmission in schools: A retrospective cohort study in Italy's Marche region

Introduction: While increasing the ventilation rate is an important measure to remove inhalable virus-laden respiratory particles and lower the risk of infection, direct validation in schools with population-based studies is far from definitive. Methods: We investigated the strength of association between ventilation and SARS-CoV-2 transmission reported among the students of Italy's Marche region in more than 10,000 classrooms, of which 316 were equipped with mechanical ventilation. We used ordinary and logistic regression models to explore the relative risk associated with the exposure of students in classrooms. Results and discussion: For classrooms equipped with mechanical ventilation systems, the relative risk of infection of students decreased at least by 74% compared with a classroom with only natural ventilation, reaching values of at least 80% for ventilation rates >10 L s-1 student-1. From the regression analysis we obtained a relative risk reduction in the range 12 % for each additional unit of ventilation rate per person. The results also allowed to validate a recently developed predictive theoretical approach able to estimate the SARS-CoV-2 risk of infection of susceptible individuals via the airborne transmission route. We need mechanical ventilation systems to protect students in classrooms from airborne transmission; the protection is greater if ventilation rates higher than the rate needed to ensure indoor air quality (>10 L s-1 student-1) are adopted. The excellent agreement between the results from the retrospective cohort study and the outcome of the predictive theoretical approach makes it possible to assess the risk of airborne transmission for any indoor environment.